Provine, W. B. (1986). Sewall Wright and Evolutionary Biology. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL.
Salsburg, D. (2002). The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century. Henry Holt and Company, LLC, New York, NY.
Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., and Scheines, R. (2000). Causation, Prediction, and Search. 2nd ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Stigler, S. M. (1986). The History of Statistics: The Measurement of Uncertainty Before 1900. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Stigler, S. M. (1999). Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Stigler, S. M. (2016). The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
Toulmin, S. (1961). Foresight and Understanding: An Enquiry into the Aims of Science. University of Indiana Press, Bloomington, IN. Virgil. (29 bc). Georgics. Verse 490, Book 2.
Глава 1. Лестница причинности
Annotated Bibliography
A technical account of the distinctions between the three levels of the Ladder of Causation can be found in Chapter 1 of Pearl (2000).
Our comparisons between the Ladder of Causation and human cognitive development were inspired by Harari (2015) and by the recent findings by Kind et al. (2014). Kind’s article contains details about the Lion Man and the site where it was found. Related research on the development of causal understanding in babies can be found in Weisberg and Gopnik (2013).
The Turing test was first proposed as an imitation game in 1950 (Turing, 1950). Searle’s “Chinese Room” argument appeared in Searle (1980) and has been widely discussed in the years since. See Russell and Norvig (2003); Preston and Bishop (2002); Pinker (1997).
The use of model modification to represent intervention has its conceptual roots with the economist Trygve Haavelmo (1943); see Pearl (2015) for a detailed account. Spirtes, Glymour, and Scheines (1993) gave it a graphical representation in terms of arrow deletion. Balke and Pearl (1994a, 1994b) extended it to simulate counterfactual reasoning, as demonstrated in the firing squad example.
A comprehensive summary of probabilistic causality is given in Hitchcock (2016). Key ideas can be found in Reichenbach (1956); Suppes (1970); Cartwright (1983); Spohn (2012). My analyses of probabilistic causality and probability raising are presented in Pearl (2000; 2009, Section 7.5; 2011).
References
Balke, A., and Pearl, J. (1994a). Counterfactual probabilities: Computational methods, bounds, and applications. In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 10 (R. L. de Mantaras and D. Poole, eds.). Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 46–54.
Balke, A., and Pearl, J. (1994b). Probabilistic evaluation of counterfactual queries. In Proceedings of the Twelfth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, vol. 1. MIT Press, Menlo Park, CA, 230–237.
Cartwright, N. (1983). How the Laws of Physics Lie. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.
Haavelmo, T. (1943). The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations. Econometrica 11: 1–12. Reprinted in D. F. Hendry and M. S. Morgan (Eds.), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 477–490, 1995.
Harari, Y. N. (2015). Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. Harper Collins Publishers, New York, NY.
Hitchcock, C. (2016). Probabilistic causation. In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Winter 2016) (E. N. Zalta, ed.). Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford, CA. Available at: https://stanford.library.sydney.edu.au/archives/win2016/entries/causation-probabilistic. Kind, C.-J., Ebinger-Rist, N., Wolf, S., Beutelspacher, T., and Wehrberger, K. (2014). The smile of the Lion Man. Recent excavations in Stadel cave (Baden-Württemberg, south-western Germany) and the restoration of the famous upper palaeolithic figurine. Quartär 61: 129–145.
Pearl, J. (2000). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Pearl, J. (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. 2nd ed. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Pearl, J. (2011). The structural theory of causation. In Causality in the Sciences (P. M. Illari, F. Russo, and J. Williamson, eds.), chap. 33. Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK, 697–727.
Pearl, J. (2015). Trygve Haavelmo and the emergence of causal calculus. Econometric Theory 31: 152–179. Special issue on Haavelmo centennial.
Pinker, S. (1997). How the Mind Works. W. W. Norton and Company, New York, NY.
Preston, J., and Bishop, M. (2002). Views into the Chinese Room: New Essays on Searle and Artificial Intelligence. Oxford University Press, New York, NY.
Reichenbach, H. (1956). The Direction of Time. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA.
Russell, S. J., and Norvig, P. (2003). Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. 2nd ed. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ.
Searle, J. (1980). Minds, brains, and programs. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 3: 417–457.
Spirtes, P., Glymour, C., and Scheines, R. (1993). Causation, Prediction, and Search. Springer-Verlag, New York, NY.
Spohn, W. (2012). The Laws of Belief: Ranking Theory and Its Philosophical Applications. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.
Suppes, P. (1970). A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. North-Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam, Netherlands.
Turing, A. (1950). Computing machinery and intelligence. Mind 59: 433–460.
Weisberg, D. S., and Gopnik, A. (2013). Pretense, counterfactuals, and Bayesian causal models: Why what is not real really matters. Cognitive Science 37: 1368–1381.
Глава 2. От государственных пиратов до морских свинок: становление причинного вывода
Annotated Bibliography
Galton’s explorations of heredity and correlation are described in his books (Galton, 1869, 1883, 1889) and are also documented in Stigler (2012, 2016).
For a basic introduction to the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, see Wikipedia (2016a). For the origin of Galileo’s quote “E pur si muove,” see Wikipedia (2016b). The story of the Paris catacombs and Pearson’s shock at correlations induced by “artificial mixtures” can be found in Stigler (2012, p. 9).
Because Wright lived such a long life, he had the rare privilege of seeing a biography (Provine, 1986) come out while he was still alive. Provine’s biography is still the best place to learn about Wright’s career, and we particularly recommend Chapter 5 on path analysis. Crow’s two biographical sketches (Crow, 1982, 1990) also provide a very useful biographical perspective. Wright (1920) is the seminal paper on path diagrams; Wright (1921) is a fuller exposition and the source for the guinea pig birth-weight example. Wright (1983) is Wright’s response to Karlin’s critique, written when he was over ninety years old.
