11. Leon Panetta, “Remarks on Cybersecurity,” Speech, October 11, 2012; Time Magazine, October 12, 2012.
12. North American Electric Reliability Corporation and the U. S. Department of Energy, High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System, June 2010, pp. 29–30. Dennis C. Blair, “Annual Threat Assessment of the U. S. Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” February 2, 2010 (“severely threatened”); The Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2011 (“bad new world”).
13. Joseph McClelland, Testimony Before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U. S. Senate, May 5, 2011 (smart grid).
14. Cybersecurity Two Years Later: A Report of the CSIS Commission on Cybersecurity for the 44th Presidency (Washington, DC: CSIS, 2011), p. 1 (“steamboats”); Charles Ebinger and Kevin Massey, “Enhancing Smart Grid Cybersecurity in the Age of Information Warfare,” Brookings Energy Security Initiative, February 2011; Bruce Averill and Eric A. M. Luijf, “Canvassing the Cyber Security Landscape: Why Energy Companies Need to Pay Attention,” Journal of Energy Security, May 2010.
15. U. S. Energy Information Administration, “World Oil Transit Chokepoints,” EIA website.
16. Donna J. Nincic, “The ‘Radicalization’ of Maritime Piracy: Implications for Maritime Energy Security,” Journal of Energy Security, December 2010; Jane’s Navy International, September 28, 2010.
Глава 14. Зыбучие пески Персидского залива
1. R. W. Ferrier, The History of the British Petroleum Company, Vol. I, 1901–1932 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982), p. 161 (Albania); Mira Wilkins, The Maturing of Multinational Enterprise: American Business Abroad from 1914 to 1970 (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1974), pp. 215–17 (“total loss”); Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Free Press, 1991), ch. 20 (“prize”) and chs. 24, 27, 29, Epilogue for the oil crisis.
2. Ali Al-Naimi, “Achieving Energy Stability in Uncertain Times,” speech, CERAWeek, February 10, 2010; Ali Al-Naimi, speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2, 2006.
3. Jane’s Intelligence Review, January 1, 2007 (legitimate target); Thomas Hegghammer, Jihad in Saudi Arabia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010), p. 215 (safe house).
4. Jane’s Intelligence Review, May 1, 2006; Financial Times, August 27, 2007; Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman, Assessing the Terrorist Threat: A Report of the Center’s National Security Preparedness Group, Bipartisan Policy Center, September 10, 2009; The National Interest, May 13, 2009 (economic warfare); Ali Al-Naimi, speech, Center for Strategic and International Studies, May 2, 2006.
5. HIS Jane’s, “The Siege of Tigantourine,” January 23, 2013; The Guardian, January 25, 2013; Time, February 11, 2013 (“did not predict”); “Al Qaeda Cenrtal control tightened over hostage operations,” The Long War Journal, January 17, 2013, http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2013/01/analysis_al_qaeda_ce.php.
6. Washington Post, March 26, 2011.
7. United Nations Development Programme and Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, Arab Human Development Report 2002 (New York: United Nations, 2002).
8. Navtej Dhillon and Tarik Yousef, eds., Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2009).
9. Clay Shirky, “The Political Power of Social Media,” Foreign Affairs 90, no. 1 (2011), pp. 28–41.
10. Marcus Noland and Howard Pack, The Arab Economies in a Changing World (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute, 2007), pp. 99–111.
11. David Hobbs and Daniel Yergin, “Fiscal Fitness: How Taxes at Home Help Determine Competitiveness Abroad,” IHS CERA, August 2010; interview with Lucian Pugliaresi.
12. Bhushan Bahree, “Fields of Dreams: The Great Iraqi Oil Rush: Its Potential, Challenges, and Limits” IHS CERA, March 2010.
13. Middle East Economic Survey, October 11, 2010, October 18, 2010.
14. Michael Axworthy, A History of Iran: Empire of the Mind (New York: Basic Books, 2010), p. 271 (“stupidity”).
15. Kenneth Pollack, The Persian Puzzle: The Conflict Between Iran and America (New York: Random House, 2004), pp. 267, 286.
16. Karim Sadjadpour, Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran’s Most Powerful Leader (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2009), pp. vi, 15; interview with Archie Dunham.
17. Interview.
18. The New York Times, March10, 1995 (Christopher).
19. Pollack, The Persian Puzzle, pp. 272, 282 (executive order); interview with Archie Dunham.
20. Axworthy, A History of Iran, p. 277 (“constitutional government”); Robin Wright, The Iran Primer: Power, Politics, and U. S. Policy (Washington, DC: US Institute of Peace Press, 2010), p. 140.
21. Madeleine Albright, Madame Secretary: A Memoir (New York: Miramax, 2003), pp. 319–26.
22. David Frum, The Right Man: An Inside Account of the Bush White House (New York: Random House, 2005), ch. 12 (“axis of evil”); James Dobbins, After the Taliban: Nation-Building in Afghanistan (Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2008), pp. 121–22, 142–44 (“hunt down the Taliban”); Pollack, The Persian Puzzle, pp. 346–47 (military cooperation).
23. The New York Times, September 24, 2010 (“declining American economy”); Twenty Quotes (embraces Shia islam); Joshua Teitelbaum, “What Iranian Leaders Really Say About Doing Away With Israel,” Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, 2008 (“wipe Israel off the map”); Axworthy, A History of Iran, pp. 290, 321 (“erased from the pages of time”).
24. Islamic Republic News Agency, December 5, 2006 (“good neighborliness”).
25. U. S. Energy Information Administration, “Strait of Hormuz,” World Oil Transit Chokepoints, February 2011 (Strait of Hormuz).
26. Rodney A. Mills, “Iran and the Strait of Hormuz: Saber Rattling or Global Energy Nightmare,” Naval War College, 2008, p. 1 (“unlimited period”); U. S. Energy Information Administration, “China,” Country Analysis Brief, November 2010; Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iran, Oil, and the Strait of Hormuz,” Center for Strategic and International Affairs, March 26, 2007; Caitlin Talmadge, “Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security 33 no. 1 (2008) pp. 82–117; William D. O’Neil, “Correspondence: Cost and Difficulties of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz,” International Security 33, no. 3 (2008/2009), pp. 190–98.
