8. Alfred Rappaport and Michael J. Mauboussin, Expectations Investing (Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business School Press, 2001), 105–8.
9. Steven Crist, “Crist on Value”, in Andrew Beyer et al., Bet with the Best: All New Strategies From America’s Leading Handicappers (New York: Daily Racing Form Press, 2001), 63–64.
10. Edward O. Thorp, Beat the Dealer (New York: Vintage Books, 1966), 56–57.
Глава 4. Разумная теория качественных признаков устарела
1. См.: Mitchel Resnick, Turtles, Termites, and Traffic Jams (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1994). См. также: Steven Johnson, Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software (New York: Scribner, 2001) 12–13.
2. Профессор Бертон Малкил: «Это все равно что перестать верить в Санта-Клауса. Хотя вы знаете, что Санта-Клауса не существует, но в глубине души продолжаете верить в него. Я не говорю, что это мошенничество. Обычно они искренне верят в то, что смогут это сделать. Реальность свидетельствует, что нет» (20/20, ABC News, November 27, 1992). См.: http://www.ifa.tv/Library/Support/
3. Articles/Popular/NewsShowTranscript.htm.
4. Clayton M. Christensen, Paul Carlile and David Sundahl, “The Process of Theory-Building”, Working Paper, 02–016, 4. Новую редакцию этой статьи см. на сайте: http://www.innosight.com/documents/TheoryBuilding.pdf.
5. Phil Rozenzweig, The Halo Effect… and Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers (New York: Free Press, 2006)
[9].
6. Peter L. Bernstein, Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins of Modern Wall Street (New York: The Free Press, 1992), 129–30.
7. Richard Roll, “A Critique of the Asset Pricing Theory’s Tests: Part 1: On Past and Potential Testability of the Theory”, Journal of Financial Economics 4 (1977): 129–76.
8. Clayton M. Christensen, “The Past and Future of Competitive Advantage”, MIT Sloan Management Review (Winter 2001): 105–9.
9. Kenneth L. Fisher and Meir Statman, “Cognitive Biases in Market Forecasts”, Journal of Portfolio Management 27, no. 1 (Fall 2000): 72–81.
10. Mercer Bullard, “Despite SEC Efforts, Accuracy in Fund Names Still Elusive”, The Street.com, January 30, 2001. См.: http://www.thestreet.com/funds/mercerbullard/1282823.html.
Глава 5. Рискованный бизнес
1. Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risks (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2002), 28–29.
2. John Rennie, “Editor’s Commentary: The Cold Odds Against Columbia”, Scientific American, February 7, 2003.
3. Gerd Gigerenzer, Calculated Risks, 26–28.
4. Jeremy J. Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, 3rd ed. (New York: McGraw Hill, 2002), 13
[10].
5. Michael J. Maboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, “Long Strange Trip: Thoughts on Stock Market Returns”, Credit Suisse First Boston Equity Research, January 9, 2003.
6. См. главу 3.
Глава 6. Вы эксперт?
1. J. Scott Armstrong, “The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting”, Technology Review 83 (June-July 1980):16–24.
2. Arul Gawande, Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science (New York: Picador, 2002), 35–37.
3. Paul J. Feltovich, Rand J. Spiro, and Richard L. Coulsen, “Issues of Expert Flexibility in Contexts Characterized by Complexity and Change”, in Expertise in Context: Human and Machine, ed. Paul J. Feltovich, Kenneth M. Ford, and Robert R. Hoffman (Menlo Park, Cal.: AAAI Press and Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997), 125–46.
4. R. J. Spiro, W. Vispoel, J. Schmitz, A. Samarapungavan, and A. Boeger, “Knowledge Acquisition for Application: Cognitive Flexibility and Transfer in Complex Content Domains”, in Executive Control Processes, ed. B. C. Britton (Hillsdale, N. J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, 1987), 177–99.
5. Robyn M. Dawes, David Faust, and Paul E. Meehl, “Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment”, in Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, ed. Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), 716–29.
6. Gawande, Complications, 44.
7. Katie Haffner, “In an Ancient Game, Computing’s Future”, The New York Times, August 1, 2002.
8. James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations (New York: Doubleday, 2004)
[11].
9. Joe Nocera, “On Oil Supply, Opinions Aren’t Scarce”, The New York Times, September 10, 2005.
10. Philip E. Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 2005), 68.
11. Там же, 73–75.
Глава 7. «Горячая рука» в инвестировании
1. Thomas Gilovich, Robert Valone, and Amos Tversky, “The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences”, Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295–314.
2. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, “Belief in the Law of Small Numbers”, Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971): 105–10. Иллюстрацию этой мысли см. в статье Криса Ветцеля на сайте http://www.rhodes.edu/psych/faculty/
3. wetzel/courses/wetzelsyllabus223.htm.
4. Пример взят из рецензии на книгу Стивена Гулда «Полоса удач» (Stephen Jay Gould, “The Streaks of Streaks”, New York Review of Books, August 18, 1988). См. также на сайте http://www.nybooks.com/articles/4337 (доступно на 25 мая 2005 г.).
5. Stephen Gould, Triumph and Tragedy in Mudville (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2003), 151–72. См.: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/history/
6. rare_feats/index.jsp?feature=hitting_streaks.
